EKG LINE: IS THE CFTC ON BOARD WITH PARLAYS IN PREDICTION MARKETS?
A weekly newsletter with gambling industry insider insights from the Sports Betting & Emerging Verticals team at Eilers & Krejcik Gaming
IS THE CFTC ON BOARD WITH PARLAYS IN PREDICTION MARKETS?
The U.S. Senate has begun hearings to confirm Brian D. Quintenz [pictured] as CFTC Chair.
That included a line of questioning about the “special rule,” a provision in federal law that gives the CFTC authority to shut down certain contracts.
Quintenz said he thinks the whole rule is fundamentally flawed. He even references a previous statement in which he claimed the special rule is unconstitutional.
He said: “I have spoken about this—the special rule troubles me in terms of trying to execute it with repeatability and legality…because Congress did not provide a framework for how to execute it appropriately.”
In our view, if Quintenz thinks this key part of the CFTC’s job description is illegal, he’s unlikely to use it on any contracts.
That’s a green light for operators hoping to really stretch the boundaries of event contracts—think proposition contracts, SGP-style contracts, even casino contracts.
Of course, the ongoing legal battles between Kalshi and states will also have a major say in how events contracts unfold, but this is sign that contracts could yet become real competition for OSB products.
We investigated how SGP events contracts might work in our most recent Sports Market Monitor for clients.
2. PODCAST: SHOULD U.S. SPORTSBOOKS LAUNCH EXCHANGES?
Host Brad Allen is joined by Smarkets CEO Jason Trost to discuss:
Smarkets’ effort to get a CFTC license
How leading sportsbooks should handle the events contracts opportunity
Why events contracts will end up “winner take most”
Listen to the episode here.
3. TRENDING UP / TRENDING DOWN
Trending up: NJ’s online gambling tax rate. NJ Gov. Phil Murphy and state leaders have agreed to increase iGaming and sports betting tax rates to 19.75%, per reports from NJ.com and Sports Betting Dime. The state had previously proposed a hike to to 25%, from 13% for OSB and 15% for iCasino. A finalized budget must be sent to Gov. Murphy by June 30.
Trending down: Sweeps TAM. Sweeps is coming under increasing legislative pressure, most recently from a wide-ranging bill in CA that would explicitly outlaw all online gambling, including casino-style or sports betting-style sweepstakes. It comes one week after New York became the fifth state to ban sweepstakes.
CHART OF THE WEEK: U.S. ONLINE CASINO SUPPLY CONTINUES TO FRAGMENT
The chart above shows supplier share of online casino GGR for May 2025, per the Eilers-Fantini Online Game Performance Database.
Evolution is the longtime market leader, but has seen share trickle downward in recent months from 19.1% in May 2024, to 14.5% in May this year.
That said, Evolution has been disproportionately affected by recent changes to the number of sites tracked by the OGPD. Before those changes, its GGR share was around 17.5%.
The chart also shows the rise of Games Global, which surpassed Light&Wonder for the third largest supplier this month.
AGS is another recent riser, with share hitting 6.2% in May, up from 3.4% in May last year.